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Proposition states that the realization of technological
Proposition (2) states that the realization of technological innovation in the industry, in that it facilitates the assimilation and third of new technologies developed in other sectors of the economy, reduces the technological gap between sectors i and j, increasing the possibility of intersectoral mobility of the workers (Magnani, 2009). This is more likely to occur in firms that are grouped in the same 3-digit sector than in more distant firms in terms of economic activity, i.e., classified in other sectors at 3 or even at 2-digit, because they share the same technological knowledge. In general, the results for the control variables had the expected signal being positive for x1, x2, and x3 and negative for, y1, y2 and y3.
Given the purpose of the study and the high statistical significance of the variables of skill (i.e., higher education) and technology-intensive sector variables in Table 2 above, the focus was set on the results for the subsamples presented below.
Conclusion
The Pre-Salt oil reserves and economic impacts in Brazil
The high profile given to megareserves discoveries of oil in the country makes room for a new paradigm of economic development because it involves aspects related to both the potential for economic growth, social development and energy security and environmental sustainability strategies and even geopolitical and national security.
The country, which until 2006 was not self-sufficient in oil, Brazil sees the possibility of becoming a major world player in the production of this energy commodity. The discoveries of oil and natural gas in 2007 in the so called “Pre-Salt layer” (extending from the coast of Espírito Santo to Santa Catarina) bring new challenges for the country, once given the huge potential reserves, Brazil would become a net exporter of oil and oil products. To get an idea of its potential, based on conservative estimates, the Pre-Salt should double the oil reserves of the country to 31 billion barrels, only considering the portion already discovered (EXAME, 2012). It is believed that there are another 87 billion barrels undiscovered, which would put the country at the level of reserves in Iraq, for example. Moreover, for every three barrels of oil discovered in the world in the last five years, one was discovered in Brazil, which still accounts for 63% of global oil discoveries in deep waters. Projections indicate that, with the development of newly discovered reserves, Brazil is the country with the highest production growth from countries outside OPEC in 2030 (EXAME, 2012; ANP, 2012).
According to the National Petroleum Agency (ANP), investment demand for the Pre-Salt is expected to exceed 400 billion dollars in materials, systems, equipment and services by 2020 (ANP, 2012). Among the investments already announced are the Petrobras – which announced in its Business Plan (PETROBRAS, 2012), $ 142 billion of investments for the five-year period from 2012 to 2016 – the British BG Group, with investments of $ 30 billion and Repsol YPF to US $ 14 billion (Ernst and Young Tergo, 2011).
Nevertheless, Brazil is faced with numerous challenges with the Pre-Salt. One is to reconcile the blessings afforded by exploration, such as increased production and export possibilities and the large increase in public revenues, with the threat of fiscal and macroeconomic imbalances, the literature has termed “the resource curse”. The idea of the resource curse date of the pioneering work of ECLAC (Prebisch, 1949; Singer, 1950; Furtado, 1957) that predicts, in general terms, that the abundance of natural resources can have an adverse effect on the country\'s development. The abundance of natural resources would impact on the productivity of the economy, deteriorating terms of trade and specialization in primary commodities in developing countries. Furtado (1957), for example, studies the case of Venezuela and implications of its dependence on oil. In recent decades, the literature has been addressing this problem (Auty and Gelb, 2001; Sachs and Warner, 1995; Auty, 1990; Gelb, 1988; Stevens, 1986; Corden and Neary, 1982), in spite of the empirical evidence that many countries abundant in natural resources tend to grow more slowly than similar countries that do not have the same allocation of resources. The main channel blamed for this effect is linked to the loss of domestic competitiveness caused by the appreciation of the local currency, due to the low cost of exported products that bring significant revenues in foreign currency into the local economy industries.